Trump's Tariffs
The tariffs announced on April 2nd have disrupted many firms' strategies and thrown financial markets into chaos. Further announcements have increased tariffs on China and reduced other tariffs pending negotiations. What will be the impact of greater uncertainty and volatility on world trade, business investment in Australia, the US and China and other macroeconomic variables? Where are tariffs and non-tariff barriers likely to settle? Are any scenarios more likely, and how much decoupling between the US and China is likely? How much of the volatility in financial markets is due to tariffs, and how much is due to uncertainty about other factors such as non-tariff trade barriers or weakening of Central Bank independence?
Panellists
Dr Jenny Gordon is a Nonresident Fellow at the Lowy Institute and also a Honorary Professor at the Centre for Social Research and Methods at the Australian National University. Jenny is a member of the Australian International Agricultural Research Centre’s Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning Advisory Panel, and on the Asian Development Bank Institute’s Advisory Committee. Until recently Jenny was the Chief Economist at DFAT, joining in November 2019 to establish the Office of the Chief Economist (OCE), bringing together trade and investment economics with development economics. In the two years since its inception OCE expanded the data analysis and communication outreach to the department, building interactive dashboards, and offering more complex systems analysis backed by sound empirical evidence to support policy and program development and delivery. The program of development investment evaluation was incorporated into OCE in 2000.
Steven Hamilton is an Assistant Professor of Economics at The George Washington University in Washington DC, a Visiting Fellow at the Tax and Transfer Policy Institute at the Australian National University, a Faculty Affiliate at the Institute for International Economic Policy at GWU, and a columnist at The Australian Financial Review. He has published academic research in the Journal of Public Economics and the National Tax Journal, and is author of the book, “Australia’s Pandemic Exceptionalism”, published by UNSW Press. Steven’s primary area of research is public and household finance, where he studies the effects of government policy on behavior. He has published opinion pieces in the Washington Post, The Australian, the Sydney Morning Herald, and The Age, among others, and has provided economic commentary to the New York Times, the LA Times, Time Magazine, Newsweek, The Atlantic, Slate, The Hill, among others. Steven is the former Chief Economist at Blueprint Institute and a former policy analyst at the Australian Treasury. He holds a PhD and MA in economics from the University of Michigan, and a Bachelor of Economics with First Class Honours and Bachelor of Business Management from the University of Queensland.
Laura Puzzello is an Associate Professor in the Department of Economics at the Monash Business School, Monash University. Her research rigorously pursues a broad set of policy-relevant questions primarily in the field of International Trade. Her work has been published in the American Economic Review, the Journal of International Economics, and the Journal of Applied Econometrics, among other leading international journals. She is currently working on an Australian Research Council Discovery Project that explores the legal, political and economic causes and consequences of investment screening policies primarily implemented based on national security concerns. A different area of her current research focuses on accurately identifying the effect of trade policy, particularly non-tariff measures, on trade and countries’ welfare. Her previous research has focused on understanding the effects of trade on growth, volatility and the environment.
