Deborah Cobb-Clark

Poll 66

Top economists say Trump’s policies will hit Australian economic growth and push up inflation and interest rates in the US.

Weaker Chinese economic growth; Weaker Australian economic growth; A weaker US dollar; Slower progress towards global net zero emissions

Poll 65

Panellists are unanimous in believing Australia’s housing market is in crisis.

Offered a choice of 14 measures identified by the Economic Society of Australia as likely to restrain prices for buyers and renters, none of the 49 leading economists polled picked: “do nothing, the market will determine appropriate prices”.

The crisis in the rental market – particularly for single parents, low-income workers, and other vulnerable groups – is one of the most pressing challenges facing us.

Rental Affordability

Remove barriers to building prefabricated homes, Provide more public housing, Ease planning restrictions

Poll 64

Panelists were asked to comment on two questions: 

Is the budget likely to achieve its aim of getting inflation back within the RBA target band by the end of this year and back to 2.75% by mid next year?

And

On May 14, the government delivered a budget designed, in the Treasurer's words, to "focus on fighting inflation in the near term and then growth in the medium term " - What grade would you give the budget, given that objective? A, B, C, D, E or F

Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/

NOT SURE The international economic environment continues to be very uncertain. How this resolves itself will matter for how well we do in achieving the RBA target inflation band.

B

I would have liked to see more support for those on Jobseeker.

Poll 63

April Poll - panellists were asked about the GST deal with Western Australia.  The following two questions were posed: 

"Is the long-standing arrangement broadly the best method of distributing the nationally-collected GST revenue?" and "Should the 2018 changes be kept or scrapped?"

YES -

Scrapped

Poll 62

Panellists were asked "Which of the options set out below best describes the kind of approach the Australian government should take to the US Inflation Reduction Act? (Pick 1)"

To support homegrown emerging green technologies

Provide more grants to innovative firms across the entire economy

The approach should be financed by cutting Australia's fossil fuel subsidies, which will accelerate transformation. The relevant part of the US Inflation Reduction Act referred to in this poll is the part addressed to clean energy investments.

Poll 61

Worried economists call for a carbon price, a tax on coal exports, and ‘green tariffs’ to get Australia on the path to net zero

Phase out non-electric vehicles | Introduce an economy-wide cap and trade carbon price | Expedite building new transmission lines to connect renewable energy

Poll 60

Australia’s leading economists believe Australia can sustain an unemployment rate as low as 3.75% – much lower than the latest Reserve Bank estimate of 4.25% and the Treasury’s latest estimate of 4.5%.

relaxing industrial relations regulation to allow for greater "flexibility" (as defined by employers), improving the quality of primary and secondary education, reducing out-of-pocket costs of childcare for families

4.75

Poll 59

Our panellists were asked the following 2023 budget question: "On May 9, the government delivered a budget designed, in the Treasurer's words, to strike a balance between relief, repair and restraint'.  What grade would you give the budget, given that objective: A, B, C, D, E or F?"

Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND - https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/

Overall rating: B - Keeping inflationary pressures in check: C

B

INFLATION COMMENTS: It would have been good to see more initiatives targeting supply-side constraints,

Poll 58

When panellests were asked to find an extra A$20 billion per year to fund government priorities like building nuclear submarines and responding to climate change, Australia’s top economists overwhelmingly back land tax, increased resource taxes, an attack on negative gearing and extending the scope of the goods and services tax.

Photo credit by Joshua Hoehne on Unsplash

Efficiency picks: Broaden the set of goods and services captured by the GST Equity picks: Tax windfall profits Wind back superannuation tax concessions Introduce inheritance taxes

Poll 57

Australia’s top economists have overwhelmingly endorsed intervention to restrain gas and electricity prices, with only three of the 47 leading economists surveyed believing the best thing the government can do is to leave things to the market.

Photo credit: Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND

.

Reserve domestic gas equivalent to 15% of LNG production from each LNG export project (ie making the

Poll 56

Investing in Australians’ education is far more important than immigration in resolving the nation’s skills shortages, according to leading economists surveyed in the lead-up to this week’s jobs and skills summit.

The 50 top Australian economists polled by the Economic Society of Australia and The Conversation are recognised by their peers as leaders in their fields, including economic modelling, labour markets and public policy.

Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND

Macroeconomic policy Broader reforms to promote productivity Education and skills

Broader reforms to promote productivity We need to develop measures to deal with supply chain issues, including labour supply constraints, in order to lift productivity.

Poll 52

"What do you think the intake of permanent migrants should be in coming years"

Australia’s leading economists have overwhelmingly endorsed a return to the highest immigration intake on record, saying Australia should aim for at least 190,000 migrants per year as it opens its borders, up from the target of 160,000 per year set ahead of COVID.

Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"

.

190,000 is about right

The Australian labour market has the capacity at the moment to absorb a relatively large number of permanent migrants. At the same time, current labour shortages can also be filled with the return of temporary migrants (e.g. international students) now that borders are more open.

Poll 51

Our panellists were asked whether rate hikes would be necessitated in the United States, Britain and Australia.

Despite appearances – especially in the United States – the era of high inflation isn’t set for a comeback in the view of Australia’s leading economists, and most see no need for the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates next year.

Question 4

"Following the next Federal election, the incoming Federal Government should commission an independent Review of the Reserve Bank of Australia."

Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"

Disagree

Poll 51

Our panellists were asked whether rate hikes would be necessitated in the United States, Britain and Australia.

Despite appearances – especially in the United States – the era of high inflation isn’t set for a comeback in the view of Australia’s leading economists, and most see no need for the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates next year.

Question 3 

"The Reserve Bank has, over the past 5 years, effectively used the tools available to it to achieve its goals of "maintaining the stability of the currency, ensuring full employment and furthering the 'economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia'."

Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"

Agree

7

Poll 51

Our panellists were asked whether rate hikes would be necessitated in the United States, Britain and Australia.

Despite appearances – especially in the United States – the era of high inflation isn’t set for a comeback in the view of Australia’s leading economists, and most see no need for the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates next year.

Question 2

"When do you expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to next lift its cash rate?"

Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"

.

5

2024

Poll 51

Our panellists were asked whether rate hikes would be necessitated in the United States, Britain and Australia.

Despite appearances – especially in the United States – the era of high inflation isn’t set for a comeback in the view of Australia’s leading economists, and most see no need for the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates next year.

Question 1

"The current combination of Australian fiscal and monetary policy poses a serious risk of prolonged above-target inflation."

Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"

Disagree

5

Poll 50

Ahead of November’s Glasgow climate talks, our panellists were asked

"Australia would likely benefit overall from the national economy transitioning to net-zero emissions by 2050"

Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"

An economy-wide carbon price (either via a cap-and-trade scheme or an emissions tax)

Agree

An economy-wide carbon price would provide the incentives -- and mechanisms -- for initiatives to reduce emmissions through new technology as well as government and direct action policys to subsidize emissions reductions.

Poll 49

"What measures should Australian governments adopt to promote demand for vaccination once supply is no longer a constraint?"

Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"

Lotteries with cash or prizes for the vaccinated;Vaccine passports for higher-risk settings (eg. flights, restaurants, major events);Mandatory vaccination for higher risk occupations;National advertising campaigns

Poll 48

Our panellists were asked

"Higher wages growth is now a top priority of the RBA in its efforts to sustain stronger economic growth. Please identify the three of these government policies you think would best help deliver higher wages growth".  

Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"

.

Measures to boost productivity growth;Measures to boost business investment;Maintaining high governm

Poll 47

This month, our panellists were asked whether Australia should take action to speed the transition to electric cars.

"As part of efforts to reduce carbon emissions, Australian governments should take action to accelerate the take up, or take no action to accelerate the take up of electric cars"

Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"

.

3

Poll 46

"On May 11, the government delivered a budget designed, in the Treasurer's words, to 'secure Australia's economic recovery and build for the future'.  What grade would you give the budget given that objective, A, B, C, D, E, F?"

Photo credit Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND

.

C

It's good to see spending levels maintained given the current pandemic. However, the spending could have been more targeted towards economic recovery, job creation, and supporting industries and workers particularly hard hit by the crisis.

Poll 43

"On 6 October, the Government delivered a budget designed, in the Treasurer's words, to 'rebuild our economy and create jobs'.  What grade would you give the budget given the objective?  A, B, C, D, E, F"

Photo Credit: Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND 

C

My overall rating is Average. There are a lot of missed opportunities to target job growth more directly. It's not clear how much of the tax cut will actually be spent rather than saved given the general uncertainty around COVID-19.

Poll 44

"Ahead of a decision about any permanent increase expected early next year, The Conversation and the Economic Society of Australia asked 45 of Australia’s leading economists where they thought JobSeeker should settle."

Be indexed in line with wages

Indexing the JobSeeker benefit to wages rather than the CPI would be useful in ensuring that it kept pace with the changes in wages and living standards among workers. It would not necessarily need to be indexed at the same rate as the age pension which has a different objective.

Poll 42 

"The October budget will see the government announce additional policies to support recovery.  Please nominate the four programs you think would be the most effective (for an intervention of a given size) over the next two years"

Photo Credit: Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND 

Expanded investment allowance, Wage subsidies or hiring bonuses (beyond JobKeeper), Infrastructure projects, Social housing

My view is that the best options for supporting economic recovery are those which target employment growth and the creation of new jobs. This includes supporting large public infrastructure projects (including social housing) and facilitating job creation in the private sector through wage subsidies and incentives to invest.

Poll 41

"The legislated increases in compulsory super contributions, which are set to climb from 9.5% of wages to 12% over the next five years should...."

Photo Credit: Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND 

Be deferred

9

Poll 40

"Governments should provide ongoing fiscal support to boost aggregate demand during the economic crisis and recovery, even if it means a substantial increase in public debt"

Photo Credit: Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND 

Strongly agree

10

Poll 39

"A freeze in the minimum wage will support Australia's economic recovery"

Photo credit: Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND 

Agree

9

Poll 38

"The benefits to Australian society of maintaining social distancing measures sufficient to keep R<1 for COVID-19 are likely to exceed the costs"

Agree

8

Poll 37

Proposition 1: "Without changes to existing public policy or private sector practice in Australia, motherhood will always negatively affect a woman's career."

Proposition 2: "In Australia, fathers are more restricted than mothers in fulfilling a caring role while in employment."

Part 1 - Strongly disagree

8

Part 2 - Disagree

8

Poll 29

"A sustained increase in the number of new homes constructed each year, all else equal, will make housing cheaper than otherwise."

Agree

8