Margaret Nowak

Poll 57

Australia’s top economists have overwhelmingly endorsed intervention to restrain gas and electricity prices, with only three of the 47 leading economists surveyed believing the best thing the government can do is to leave things to the market.

Photo credit: Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND

.

Cap the price at which producers can sell gas domestically (for already agreed supply)

It is too late now to introduce the WA solution of gas reservation. Producers could rightly call for compensation given what would be an unheralded change in their licence requirements. Consumer subsidies also have drawbacks, while putting the onus on the consumer to shop around assumes consumers do not and that there are bargains to be had, which is a cop-out. Capping the price for already-agreed domestic supply would not result in sovereign risk because the investments that led to this supply were undertaken under price and capital return expectations at the time (which were much lower than the present and presently-expected prices). The domestic price increases predicted would result in windfall profits for the producers. Capping the price would be the least distorting of demand relative to a range of subsidies.

Poll 56

Investing in Australians’ education is far more important than immigration in resolving the nation’s skills shortages, according to leading economists surveyed in the lead-up to this week’s jobs and skills summit.

The 50 top Australian economists polled by the Economic Society of Australia and The Conversation are recognised by their peers as leaders in their fields, including economic modelling, labour markets and public policy.

Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND

Education and skills Equal opportunities and pay for women Broader reforms to promote productivity

Migration policy There would be some easy early wins in the area of migration policy. First is to overhaul the policy in relation to refugees who are already here and either waiting for determination of status or on a range of restrictive visas. The whole tenor of this policy as currently administered makes no sense at all. Some of our most successful immigration in the postwar period was with refugees who have contributed hugely to Australia. We already have in this country a ready and willing supply of labour. We should get rid of the paranoia and ideology inherent in the current administration of the policy and welcome our resident refugees into full participation and education rights. And we need to unblock the visa application process through simplification and an increase in resourcing.

Poll 55

Australia’s top economists are divided about how to tackle ballooning inflation of 6.1% that’s forecast to climb to a three-decade high of 7.75% by the end of the year.

Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND

Super profits tax on fossil fuel producers with revenue used to reduce cost of services Boost childcare subsidies Look to other costs and subsidised services of government such as pharmaceutical benefits to reduce cost of essentials on families

3%

I am concerned that interest rate rises are indeed a very blunt instrument which may cause considerable harm. Unfortunately they were raised too late and too fast and the shock value on consumers and business may well result in overshoot and recession. As one Central bank governor I believe said (not exact words but the sentiment), interest rates are like an elastic band, you can pull and pull to no effect and then suddenly all gives way.

Poll 54

Panellists were asked: 

"From this list, please pick the three issues you think will be the most important for the incoming government and should be the most important in the election".

Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND

.

The economic story about climate and the environment has not had adequate attention in Australia, being obscured by politics and "special interest" smokescreens especially in the energy sector. Hence the very real costs of climate change have not been factored into current government policies and the potential future cost are disastrously downplayed. Climate change has now significant implications for health costs, housing costs, social support policies and the real welfare of the Australian population. GDP and its growth as an indicator of population welfare is becoming increasingly misleading as climate change impacts of the real costs incurred in insurance, health, cost of food, cost of housing and loss of amenity from the natural environment for example. My three top items can be linked as each is implicated in addressing climate change and this links also into real "welfare" inducing wages, health, social support and even defense, given that climate change has real long term security implications. Tax reform provides the opportunity to address the climate by ensuring that the externalities associated with the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere over the short term start to cover their full external costs The resulting revenue can be used to support the health system, address the costs of climate catastrophes etc. and support the development of social housing. Tax reform is also necessary to address the housing affordability issue; this will be a hard one for government given the increasing vested interests of a powerful, and increasingly wealthy segment of the population, home owners and housing owners. It will nevertheless be critical in the longer term to retaining any sense of equity between the generations and needs to be taken up in a hard conversation which needs to be had by all political persuasions . Without that conversation the long-term cohesion of our society will suffer greatly.

Poll 51

Our panellists were asked whether rate hikes would be necessitated in the United States, Britain and Australia.

Despite appearances – especially in the United States – the era of high inflation isn’t set for a comeback in the view of Australia’s leading economists, and most see no need for the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates next year.

Question 4

"Following the next Federal election, the incoming Federal Government should commission an independent Review of the Reserve Bank of Australia."

Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"

Agree

Poll 51

Our panellists were asked whether rate hikes would be necessitated in the United States, Britain and Australia.

Despite appearances – especially in the United States – the era of high inflation isn’t set for a comeback in the view of Australia’s leading economists, and most see no need for the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates next year.

Question 3 

"The Reserve Bank has, over the past 5 years, effectively used the tools available to it to achieve its goals of "maintaining the stability of the currency, ensuring full employment and furthering the 'economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia'."

Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"

Uncertain

5

Poll 51

Our panellists were asked whether rate hikes would be necessitated in the United States, Britain and Australia.

Despite appearances – especially in the United States – the era of high inflation isn’t set for a comeback in the view of Australia’s leading economists, and most see no need for the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates next year.

Question 2

"When do you expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to next lift its cash rate?"

Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"

.

5

2023

Poll 51

Our panellists were asked whether rate hikes would be necessitated in the United States, Britain and Australia.

Despite appearances – especially in the United States – the era of high inflation isn’t set for a comeback in the view of Australia’s leading economists, and most see no need for the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates next year.

Question 1

"The current combination of Australian fiscal and monetary policy poses a serious risk of prolonged above-target inflation."

Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"

Uncertain

7

The outcomes over the near term will be dependent on external conditions at least as much as domestic policy settings. On these there are many uncertainties. In particular China, but it is by no means clear that recovery following Covid will take a linear upward trajectory in the rest of the world, nor that there will not be setbacks in the move to "living with Covid.

Poll 50

Ahead of November’s Glasgow climate talks, our panellists were asked

"Australia would likely benefit overall from the national economy transitioning to net-zero emissions by 2050"

Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"

An economy-wide carbon price (either via a cap-and-trade scheme or an emissions tax)

Agree

Poll 48

Our panellists were asked

"Higher wages growth is now a top priority of the RBA in its efforts to sustain stronger economic growth. Please identify the three of these government policies you think would best help deliver higher wages growth".  

Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"

.

Measures to boost productivity growth;Reforming industrial relations to support higher wage decision

Poll 47

This month, our panellists were asked whether Australia should take action to speed the transition to electric cars.

"As part of efforts to reduce carbon emissions, Australian governments should take action to accelerate the take up, or take no action to accelerate the take up of electric cars"

Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"

Remove the luxury car tax from all-electric cars, Subsidise only the purchase of non-luxury all-electric cars, Subsidise public charging points for electric cars, Set a date to ban the import of petrol and diesel cars

9

As happened with rooftop solar, to have the take up of new technology supported by government action in the early stages is important to build volume and thus reap economies of scale/further tech development. There are significant externalities (noted below) which will be mitigated by move to electric vehicles. In the case of electric cars further issues for Australia are the long lead times needed to replace the whole vehicle fleet, and the likelihood that without intervention the rest of the developed world will move ahead of us to the extent that we will be importing vehicles with obsolete technology within the next five or so years. The case for a subsidy, at least in the early phase of this change over in technology is based on the external costs of the the continued use of the existing internal combustion technology. There exist demonstrable beneficial public health effects to be gained by moving away from petrol/diesel fuel, especially within metropolitan areas, and there will be an important impact on carbon emissions. In addition such a move will ensure the reduction in dependence on imported fuel (given Australia's potential for abundant clean locally produced electricity).

Poll 46

"On May 11, the government delivered a budget designed, in the Treasurer's words, to 'secure Australia's economic recovery and build for the future'.  What grade would you give the budget given that objective, A, B, C, D, E, F?"

Photo credit Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND

.

D

The budget ensures ongoing spending and avoids the debt and deficits mantra. It will help support the economy but in a very patchy way. Important sectors of the economy such as education have been left to founder despite having been a very significant contributor to our external balance, and despite its importance to the research and training which would underpin long term growth in productivity and innovation. Another sector left to bootstrap themselves to recovery is the cultural industries, despite their importance to employment and the fact that they were also left to fend for themselves over the past year. At the same time the budget added fuel to the already stretched building and construction sectors through selective spending and concession decisions which impact those sectors. The budget did provide important new expenditure in two social areas, aged care and disability support although there is some doubt about whether it has provided the framework for that spending to be effective, especially as regards workforce. The budget cannot be said to "build for the future". It has focused government investment spending on the technology and infrastructure of the past along with the mantra that we can hold back change; unfortunately the result will be that we may not reap the productivity benefits we could expect were government capital expenditure designed to facilitate Australia's acceptance of the international trends towards a carbon neutral economy and the design of an economy which supported that. This is a huge missed opportunity. Important sections of the private sector are already rising to the challenge and support from the federal government would unleash significant investment and energy to create transformative change. Instead we are locked into the "old" industries.

Poll 43

"On 6 October, the Government delivered a budget designed, in the Treasurer's words, to 'rebuild our economy and create jobs'.  What grade would you give the budget given the objective?  A, B, C, D, E, F"

Photo Credit: Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND 

D

On the basis that the budget did provide expansionary spending I cannot give it a fail. However, overall there was a very poor selection of spending initiatives given the budget objective. The capital expenditure write off could have been better targeted to ensure that expenditure be productivity enhancing. If targeted at things like energy saving expenditure, electric vehicles, productivity enhancement in agriculture, new products to market ... , more complex to administer but also with long term benefit. I expect to see the measure as it stands result in more imports, especially in the areas of motor vehicles and computer equipment,(thus contributing to international recovery perhaps) but having little impact on productivity and employment growth in Australia. The measures to encourage apprentices are valuable but should be focused on new apprentices with safeguards to ensure that existing apprenticeships are completed. The subsidy for taking on new employees in the age groups up to 35, while well intended, seems likely to lead to some severe unintended effects for older workers who lost long term jobs as Covid hit or even those currently on jobseeker once jobseeker ends. More focused support for those areas most severely hit by Covid close downs, especially in that arts, entertainment areas, would have a more immediate impact on employment and thus support for domestic expenditure. And I fail to understand why an industry which has been a major export winner for Australia , which encourages also tourism related visits, which through world class research builds the opportunity for future productivity and employment growth and which ensures that we have a highly valued skilled and educated workers with direct impact on productivity, has been left in the position where it needs to severely contract employment at a time when we need to support employment and productivity growth. It's higher education of course.

Poll 44

"Ahead of a decision about any permanent increase expected early next year, The Conversation and the Economic Society of Australia asked 45 of Australia’s leading economists where they thought JobSeeker should settle."

Be indexed in line with wages

There are two reinforcing factors at play in my response. Firstly, our mixed public/private economic system is subject to fluctuations in output and employment; there has been, in post-war Australia, an implicit social bargain that those citizens impacted through loss of employment or livelihood will be supported by society through a social safety net. This "social contract" is one of the conditions which supports the operation of our mixed economic system to avoid the development of social unrest resulting from privation/starvation. However, there is now considerable evidence that over the past 20 or more years the level of the safety net provided has eroded and it is not now adequate to enable recipients to avoid severe hardship, instances of hunger and is some cases homelessness. Jobseeker at $287 per week falls well short of that needed to meet the social contact to provide an adequate safety net. Secondly there is research evidence to show that the base level of Jobseeker , $287 per week , impedes those reliant on it and seeking employment. The ongoing struggle to maintain shelter and adequate food coupled with transport, clothing and other costs entailed in jobseeking, are proving barriers to preparing for and finding long term secure jobs, especially for those on jobseeker for any length of time. Current anecdotal press coverage of difficulties in finding workers, (implicitly because current jobseeker payment is deemed too high) is misleading. Many of the toted vacancies are seasonal in nature. These anecdotes ignore the very significant resources required to be in a position to take up such positions (access to transport needed in regional or new locations, housing including moving away from secure housing resources provided by family/networks, establishment costs etc.) and to follow the seasonal flows.

Poll 42 

"The October budget will see the government announce additional policies to support recovery.  Please nominate the four programs you think would be the most effective (for an intervention of a given size) over the next two years"

Photo Credit: Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND 

Expanded investment allowance, Permanently boosting JobSeeker (Newstart) beyond December 31, 2020, Infrastructure projects, Social housing

Given that the current economic situation is the direct effect of the crash in spending by both consumers and business in the wake of disruption and uncertainty stemming from COVID 19, the policy response needs to have the maximum impact on direct spending. Each of the policies I selected will directly affect spending in a positive way. One off cash payments would also be spent but do not have continuing positive impact. The expanded investment allowance would support the growth in capacity and productivity in the private sector and create potential for business growth and thus employment. Expenditure on social housing both boosts direct spending and creates social benefits through supporting the health, employment prospects and family welfare of those growing numbers of Australians in housing stress. The permanent boost to jobseeker will have similar impacts on family welfare and employability of recipients. At the same time it underpins society's implicit contract with working Australians, which allows the private sector to shed employees but implicitly accepts there is a social contact that society as a whole will not "discard", but will support the welfare of those so affected. Infrastructure projects provide direct employment potential while, if well selected, hold the promise of increasing productivity and improving living conditions of the community. Each of these I have selected to have maximum impact on spending within the economy and thus on employment and employment recovery. Neither tax cuts for individuals nor corporate tax cuts can be assured to be spent and thus increase employment while they would have a detrimental impact on equity. Policy in relation to cleaner energy, while critical and urgent, requires a clear climate policy direction from government but does not necessarily require government taxpayer dollars for the private sector to act.

Poll 41

"The legislated increases in compulsory super contributions, which are set to climb from 9.5% of wages to 12% over the next five years should...."

Photo Credit: Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND 

Uncertain

6

In the longer term the increase to 12% would have upside for the economy and retirement incomes. However, the timeframe legislated is quite short given current conditions arising from Covid and could have a marginal impact on investment and employment decisions.

Poll 40

"Governments should provide ongoing fiscal support to boost aggregate demand during the economic crisis and recovery, even if it means a substantial increase in public debt"

Photo Credit: Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND 

Strongly agree

10

The critical fiscal support should be targeted towards supporting consumption expenditure along with skills enhancement and supporting people to get back into employment via child care support and adequate income support for the unemployed. As activity picks up there may also be a good case for targeted support for business investment expenditure via accelerated depreciation.

Poll 37

Proposition 1: "Without changes to existing public policy or private sector practice in Australia, motherhood will always negatively affect a woman's career."

Proposition 2: "In Australia, fathers are more restricted than mothers in fulfilling a caring role while in employment."

Part 1 - Strongly agree

10

First and foremost there are strong cultural underpinnings to the labour market outcomes for women who become mothers in Australia. Culturally and structurally the Australian labour market largely still adheres to the male "breadwinner" model and this significantly influences the decision making and actions of fathers, mothers, employers and the government. The assumptions of this model underlie the ?statistical discrimination? which ensures that for young women there is the likelihood that their starting salary will be below that of their male peers, that they will in all likelihood receive less access to training, mentoring and employer sponsorship/special career enhancing projects. This is further exacerbated when the woman is pregnant/has children. This impacts family decision making post children as the male is identified as having greater earning capacity and thus the expected breadwinner. Cultural expectations also underpin choices women make upon return to work following maternity. Culturally the obverse of male breadwinner, the woman as carer, underlies the expectations of and attitudes of women who are mothers; from guilt feelings expressed by some working mothers to attitudes and preferences about who undertakes the childcare, the residual work choices open to women returning to work when balancing child care (eg shift work to enable a partner to be present to provide care) and the preference for part-time work to enable balancing of care duties and household maintenance which largely is an expected part of the ?carer?role. There is an interesting contrast with some studies available for Europe such as France and the data provided on Norway in respect of women returning to full-time work and the expectation of and availability of out of home childcare. The structure of the labour market, employment and the organisation and content of ?jobs? responds to this breadwinner model in a multitude of ways which then privilege the male breadwinner model. The rewards for ?presentism?, structuring of ?the job? content around the assumption of ?full-time? work, timing of training opportunities, meetings etc., single sex facilities available on some work-sites and the non-inclusive workplace culture in non-traditional fields of work are but some of these. The other side of this coin is the cultural expectations on men that make taking on the carer role an exception, both because the employment is not structured for them to be able to do so, and because both government labour market regulations around family leave and enterprise bargains and awards may distinguish the leave expectations for ?mothers? and ?fathers? differently.

Part 2 - Agree

6

Poll 34

"In general, using more congestion charges in crowded transportation networks — such as higher tolls during peak travel times in cities, and peak fees for airplane takeoff and landing slots — and using the proceeds to lower other taxes would make citizens on average better off."

Strongly agree

9

Congestion taxes would be expected to drive a number of behavioural changes that would serve to reduce congestion including switching time of travel, ride sharing, increased use of public transport, changing transport mode to cycling, long distance rail, working from home and employer initiated changes in starting and finishing times, video conferencing rather than face to face meetings...…..The inclusion with the policy of returning any proceeds to the community through tax relief supports the acceptance of the policy and effectively helps compensate those making adjustments which result in gains through lower congestion faced by those who cannot (or will not) change.

Poll 27

"The recent US corporate tax cuts will have no impact on investments in and capital flows into Australia."

Uncertain (neither agree nor disagree)

6

Any Investment decision can be expected to be dependent on rigorous assessment of the expected rate of return (pre-tax) on that particular capital expenditure within the overall context of the business. A change in the rate of corporate tax in the US is not expected, in the short to medium term, to affect any assessment of pre-tax rates of return on Australian based investments. Tax rates will impact on comparative returns, all else equal, should an organisation have competing investment opportunities in the US within its stable. However, there are a number of factors which need to be considered and which make any outcome very uncertain. These include the potential impact of the US decisions on tax rates on the comparative rate of inflation in the US and on the US exchange rate. Focus also on the headline rate of Federal corporate tax in the US is misleading (state based US corporate taxes plus the intricacies of national tax laws) as it is the effective overall rate the organisation expects to pay which, at the margin, could make a difference. How the relevant effective overall rates compare, plus the potential macro-economic impacts of the US tax cuts means any marginal impact of the US decision is, at best, uncertain.

Poll 28

Proposition 1: "Slowing the growth in the debt to GDP ratio should be a priority for Australian governments."

Proposition 2: "Slowing the growth in the debt to GDP ratio is a higher priority than income or corporate tax cuts."

1 - Agree

2 - Agree

1 - Using the cyclical upswing to slow or even reverse the growth in the debt to GDP ratio will strengthen the ability of government to respond to the next fiscal downturn.

2 -

Poll 33

Proposition 1: "There is a significant risk that, either as a result of the findings and recommendations of the Royal Commission into Misconduct in the Banking, Superannuation and Financial Services Industry or as a result of the financial institutions' response to those findings, credit will become less readily available to Australian households or businesses."

Proposition 2: "Assuming credit becomes less readily available to Australian households or businesses, this will in turn have adverse consequences for the performance of the Australian economy."

1 - Agree

2 - Uncertain (neither agree nor disagree)

1 - The Financial institutions can be expected to respond to the public airing of some of their recent actions in respect of customers by adopting a more conservative approach to providing credit. However, there is also already evidence that the financial institutions are restricting credit in response to the regulatory authorities concerns relating to overextension of lending in the housing sector, especially in relation to housing investment in Sydney and Melbourne.

2 - The impact on the performance of the economy from credit being less readily available is dependent on both what else is happening in the economy at that time and on where and for whom the demand for credit is not being met. In the long term a reappraisal of borrower eligibility may strengthen the credit system and support financial stability.

Poll 25

Proposition 1: "The modern phenomena of information overload and social-media-fuelled 'fake news' bring into focus the value of quality journalism. Quality journalism has a public-good dimension that warrants public support."

Proposition 2: "The Australian government presently provides funding for the ABC and SBS, Australia's independent public broadcasters. The Australian government should increase its financial support of quality journalism."

1 - Strongly agree

2 - Strongly agree

1 - The whole concept of 'fake news' is dismaying. Scepticism about some information purveyed by some politicians and news media has always been healthy and we have in the past had a media with sufficient diversity to challenge inaccurate or incorrect reports. The deliberate dissemination of reports with no basis in fact on a large scale seems to be a recent phenomenon( outside a war situation). It has the potential to be very damaging to our democracy. The need for quality information for our democracy to be able to operate and make determinations on social and economic issues, international  as well as domestic (noting the 'weapons of mass destruction Iraq affair), is the basis on which to attribute public-good status to quality journalism.

2 - Government support for quality journalism has been implicitly under attack, both in the reduction of funding for the ABC and SBS and in the attacks by some from government on issues such as claims of bias when reports are critical. It is important for our democracy that financial support for quality journalism is increased, both for these existing media and potentially for other independent sources. As economists we understand that quality information is important and valuable for decision making, that it can be costly to assemble and that where it is held asymmetrically, quality decision making is impeded. this is equally true of decisions on social, community and political issues as in economic decisions.

Poll 24

"Assuming that the law will be changed to allow same-sex couples to marry in Australia, this will generate net economic benefits for the nation as a whole over the next 10 years."

Agree

5

Any net economic benefit stems from the potential for a decline in discrimination within the Australian community. The economic benefits, if this does occur, include reduced health costs, especially in the area of mental health, reduced suicide rates among youth, and reduced discrimination in the workforce, resulting in more optimal allocation of workers and thus marginal boost to productivity. It could also lead to fewer members of the queer community locating overseas to seek a more liberal climate to work, live and marry, thus keeping some of our creative citizens in Australia. However, we cannot be confident of this in the short-term. There has been a very apparent backlash to the outcomes of the survey and some evidence that discrimination will increase for some; the stridency with which a minority characterise the queer community as 'other' will possibly increase short-term disfunction. I hope I am wrong. I do not subscribe to the view that an upsurge in weddings will generate net economic benefits over the medium term.

Poll 21

"The Finkel Review has recommended a mandatory certificate scheme that obliges electricity retailers to purchase a certain proportion of the electricity they sell from sources of electricity whose emission intensity is below a defined level. This is preferable to conventional approaches to the pricing of externalities, such as an emission tax or cap and trade scheme."

Uncertain (neither agree nor disagree)

6

Pricing ,assuming it is possible to arrive at the cost of the externality and that a pricing solution is political feasibility, would appear to be the first best option. However, on this particular issue, first best options are not feasible and, without serious modelling, coming to a decision on which of the alternatives would provide the next best option is not clear.

Poll 20

"For-profit provision of human services like health and education leads to poor client outcomes and high costs to government."

Agree

8

First, it is difficult with many of these services to specify service level to the degree required. Second, many of the consumers of these services lack consumer power because they lack information and information needs are complex and difficult to judge or because they are effectively clients of government rather than the provider or because they are really unable to have informed decisions on services for the very reason they need them. Government appointed advocates are sometimes the answer but can be captured by the provider. The philosophical overriding of emphasis put on the profit motive by commercial providers therefore is not consistent with achieving the best results for the service recipients. Cost to government is increased by the need for regulation of providers, rectification when things go wrong, while the profit which is the commercial providers motive has to be part of the cost equation which does not flow to the provision of service.

Poll 16

"Capital gains tax deductions for housing investment should be removed because they overstimulate the housing market, contributing to rising house prices."

Uncertain (neither agree nor disagree)

10

I am certain I am uncertain about this because I am really not sure about the question!! Does it mean that the 50% discount (not a deduction?) on capital gains from housing sold after at least one year should be removed? Or is it talking about the availability of negative gearing, especially the option of deductions enabling offsetting losses on housing property against other income?The 50% discount on capital gains available for capital gains made after holding an asset for more than one year should revert instead to the original legislation where the capital gain was discounted for the inflation over the period the investment was held. The current situation is extremely distorting to markets, not only the housing market, since it favours the short -term. Yes, it stimulates demand and pushes up housing prices.The ability to offset losses on investments against earned income is also distorting the housing market. Aside from its impact on pushing up housing prices, the option of negative gearing is a disincentive to the optimal use of the housing stock and likely results in a distortion of the prices of different asset classes in the Australian market. The two in combination have been very detrimental to housing affordability for non-owners and have contributed in over-investment in housing in Australia relative to other assets.

Poll 19

"The recent Parliamentary Inquiry into "Gender segregation in the workplace and its impact on women's economic equality" was asked to examine measures to encourage women?s participation in male-dominated occupations and industries. Although there is growing awareness of the productivity gains of gender diversity, the private market alone is unlikely to steer the Australian labour market toward gender equality in male-dominated industries. Breaking down gender segregation in the labour market can only be achieved with some degree of government intervention."

Strongly agree

8

The market signals to women in relation to their participation in male-dominated industries continue to be very negative. Not only do they face a potentially challenging work environment with the need to be resilient to discrimination in hiring, bullying and sexist comments in the workplace but the evidence shows them that they will be offered lower starting wages than their male colleagues if they do apply, and significant evidence that it will be difficult to nigh impossible to achieve senior level positions where that is applicable. Women entering the traditionally male trades face strong discrimination at the apprentice/hiring stage and often a difficult work environment. The market is not a friendly place for women in these male dominated occupations and there is a strong case to be made that this is indeed market failure. That is the ground on which I conclude that some degree of government intervention is required. It is time that we dispensed with the often quoted excuses such as "we select on merit", "women do not have the right qualifications", "women are not taking the right qualifications", "women do not have the requisite experience". Each of these can be demonstrated to be flawed, though they have continued to be provided as excuses for the past 50 years! Get the market place signals right and the women will follow! Don't blame women, blame the market and those with the power to set and change the signals as to what will be rewarded.

Poll 15

"It is more effective to teach an introductory course in micro-economics first before an introductory course in macro-economics."

Agree

6

Grounding in micro-economic concepts is important for achieving full appreciation of the issues in macroeconomics. However, this should also include an introduction to behavioural economics which is contributing now to deeper understanding of the limitations of economic man as a guide to policy and thus depth to policy discussions.  A problem based approach to teaching economics combines the insights of Micro, Behavioural and Macro to look deeply at selected policies/issues and will facilitate deeper learning /understanding than either standard micro or macro courses which can seem by students to be very removed from the world they live in.

Poll 14

"The social costs of gambling exceed the benefits (including consumer surplus from recreational gambling and tax revenue for governments)."

Agree

5

Poll 13

"Hillary Clinton is likely to be the superior US presidential candidate for the Australian economy and for Australia."

Strongly agree

10

Premised on Trump actually doing what he said he will if elected.

The total benefit of current levels* of migration to Australia will outweigh the total costs to Australia's economy.

Strongly agree

9

Poll 11

Part 1: 'Behavioural economics provides new and useful insights into individual behaviour.'

Part 2: 'It is unethical for governments to use behavioural economics to "nudge" citizens.'

PART 1 - Disagree

6

PART 2 - Disagree

6

Poll 10

"The Reserve Bank of Australia should be tasked with targeting nominal economic growth rather than inflation."

Uncertain (neither agree nor disagree)

8

The original act establishing the RBA (end of 1950s) had a focus on objective of ensuring full employment (as well as stability of the currency ). The current inflation target reflects response to changes in the theoretical dialogue about the limitations and transmission mechanisms of monetary policy coupled with contemporary policy concerns of the 70s, 80s and 90s. Once adopted the inflation target may be said to have served Australia quite well. However, from the perspective of this history that ability to consider the changing dialogue and policy environment has been a strength of the RBA. The policy issues of this decade do require a re-consideration of both the role and targets of monetary policy. Nominal economic growth may be that target; however, of itself I cannot see that as a way out of the current impasse of low investment and productivity growth.

Poll 9

"Assuming it is implemented, Brexit will deliver net economic benefits, on average, to UK citizens within its first 5 years."

Strongly disagree

10

Poll 6

"As the Chinese economy makes its transition from investment-led to consumption led growth, the Australian service sector which currently accounts for around 20% of total exports, will produce a second 'Chinese economic windfall' for Australians."

Disagree

7

The resources boom was an entirely different phenomenon from any potential upside for Australia resulting from consumption led growth in China. In the former there was a very significant positive impact on Australia's terms of trade (subsequently reversed). Australia was able to reap economic rents from its high quality (relative to many competitors) resource endowments, coupled with well developed existing production from those resources when prices were relatively high. The terms of trade impact had a flow on to real incomes and GDP.The massive capital investment programs spawned by growth in demand beyond existing capacity also gave the impression of further windfall. Market adjustments following the lagged development of excess capacity may, however, result in an overhang of capacity and subsequent capital market adjustments on account of this. It has already resulted in a strong reversal of the favorable terms of trade.In the case of the consumption led growth in China there will be opportunities for Australian services providers in many fields such as education, health, tourism. However, Australia does not have the obvious comparative advantage in these sectors that it had in the resources sector. It is very unlikely that there will be any favourable impact on Australia's terms of trade as a result of the refocusing of the Chinese economy, indeed they may even fall a little further with falling resources prices. Thus the real income boost achieved from the mining boom, which was the result of the temporary improvement in the terms of trade, will not be repeated. Australian services providers will need to be competitive with other developed economies including newer developed economies in our region such as Singapore. Australian suppliers will need to work hard and smart to be competitive in this market.

Poll 4

"New tax incentives for investments in technology and innovation businesses and start-ups are likely to be inefficient."

Uncertain (neither agree nor disagree)

9

Investors in technology and innovation businesses are subject to a higher degree of information failure/uncertainty in returns than is generally the case for other businesses, and potentially market failure in access to capital. However, the design of tax incentives that appropriately address this issue without creating other distortions is problematic.

Poll 3

"Giving specific presents as holiday gifts is inefficient, because recipients could satisfy their preferences much better with cash."

Disagree

9

The statement makes the assumption that efficiency in the messy world of human relationships can readily be reduced to a question of physical resource allocation and that to attain this efficient outcome the giver and receiver gain no psychic value from the acts of selecting and of receiving the selected gift.

Poll 2

"Aligning Sunday penalty rates for hospitality, entertainment and retailing industries with the current levels for Saturday, as proposed in the Productivity Commission's draft report, will lead to more employment and greater availability of services in these industries on Sundays."

Uncertain (neither agree nor disagree)

8

The proposition that the reduction in penalties would lead to greater employment implicitly considers only the labour demand side. On the supply side we have to consider the preferences for leisure (at times when most of the community have leisure). The leisure/wage rate trade-off would result in lower supply at lower penalty rates? Is there an over-supply of people willing currently to work at Sunday rates which may still see enough supply to meet any increase in demand?