Abigail Payne

Poll 66

Top economists say Trump’s policies will hit Australian economic growth and push up inflation and interest rates in the US.

Stronger US economic growth; Weaker Australian economic growth; A weaker US dollar; Lower US interest rates; Slower progress towards global net zero emissions; Massive decline in immigration; decline in social cohesion in the United States

The stronger economic growth is premised on the assumption that this growth will be driven primarily by the initiatives introduced by the Biden administration and that these initiatives will not be dismantled.

Poll 59

Our panellists were asked the following 2023 budget question: "On May 9, the government delivered a budget designed, in the Treasurer's words, to strike a balance between relief, repair and restraint'.  What grade would you give the budget, given that objective: A, B, C, D, E or F?"

Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND - https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/

Overall rating: A - Keeping inflationary pressures in check: B

A

OVERALL COMMENTS: Given the cards the government has been dealt (the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and cost of living pressures), this was a stronger budget that what might have been expected. I encourage the government, however, to continue to be bold in considering how best to meet Australia's needs while constrained. There are many opportunities to test and try solutions to ensure they stand a strong likelihood of success before implementing. Stay strong and be innovative for providing a valuable evidence base for making decisions.

Poll 58

When panellests were asked to find an extra A$20 billion per year to fund government priorities like building nuclear submarines and responding to climate change, Australia’s top economists overwhelmingly back land tax, increased resource taxes, an attack on negative gearing and extending the scope of the goods and services tax.

Photo credit by Joshua Hoehne on Unsplash

Efficiency picks: Increase the corporate tax rate Tax windfall profits Increase resource taxes Equity picks: Increase resource taxes Increase the corporate tax rate

Poll 56

Investing in Australians’ education is far more important than immigration in resolving the nation’s skills shortages, according to leading economists surveyed in the lead-up to this week’s jobs and skills summit.

The 50 top Australian economists polled by the Economic Society of Australia and The Conversation are recognised by their peers as leaders in their fields, including economic modelling, labour markets and public policy.

Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND

Education and skills Migration policy Equal opportunities and pay for women

Education and skills The state of young adults obtaining good jobs, let alone being employed after leaving school, should be considered a thorn in Australia's side. While much attention is paid to VET and apprenticeships (as it should be), I worry that we have lost a focus on what happens in high school to enable youth from all walks of life to pursue a range of opportunities that reflects their potential and their interests. We should be taking seriously the notion of lifelong learning, considering how to provide positive transitions from high school into further education and training and embrace the importance of all institutions that provide this education and training beyond high school.

Poll 54

Panellists were asked: 

"From this list, please pick the three issues you think will be the most important for the incoming government and should be the most important in the election".

Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND

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Poll 52

"What do you think the intake of permanent migrants should be in coming years"

Australia’s leading economists have overwhelmingly endorsed a return to the highest immigration intake on record, saying Australia should aim for at least 190,000 migrants per year as it opens its borders, up from the target of 160,000 per year set ahead of COVID.

Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"

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190,000 is about right

I appreciate a number makes it simple. Context for the number with meaningful projections for worker shortages across broad occupations etc would better couch immigration policy.

Poll 51

Our panellists were asked whether rate hikes would be necessitated in the United States, Britain and Australia.

Despite appearances – especially in the United States – the era of high inflation isn’t set for a comeback in the view of Australia’s leading economists, and most see no need for the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates next year.

Question 4

"Following the next Federal election, the incoming Federal Government should commission an independent Review of the Reserve Bank of Australia."

Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"

Uncertain

Poll 51

Our panellists were asked whether rate hikes would be necessitated in the United States, Britain and Australia.

Despite appearances – especially in the United States – the era of high inflation isn’t set for a comeback in the view of Australia’s leading economists, and most see no need for the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates next year.

Question 3 

"The Reserve Bank has, over the past 5 years, effectively used the tools available to it to achieve its goals of "maintaining the stability of the currency, ensuring full employment and furthering the 'economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia'."

Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"

Agree

8

Poll 51

Our panellists were asked whether rate hikes would be necessitated in the United States, Britain and Australia.

Despite appearances – especially in the United States – the era of high inflation isn’t set for a comeback in the view of Australia’s leading economists, and most see no need for the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates next year.

Question 2

"When do you expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to next lift its cash rate?"

Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"

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Poll 51

Our panellists were asked whether rate hikes would be necessitated in the United States, Britain and Australia.

Despite appearances – especially in the United States – the era of high inflation isn’t set for a comeback in the view of Australia’s leading economists, and most see no need for the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates next year.

Question 1

"The current combination of Australian fiscal and monetary policy poses a serious risk of prolonged above-target inflation."

Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"

Uncertain

5

Poll 50

Ahead of November’s Glasgow climate talks, our panellists were asked

"Australia would likely benefit overall from the national economy transitioning to net-zero emissions by 2050"

Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"

An economy-wide carbon price (either via a cap-and-trade scheme or an emissions tax)

Agree

Why 2050? Influential countries are demonstrating leadership by thinking about 2030 commitments. Australia could and should be a leader in this space.

Poll 49

"What measures should Australian governments adopt to promote demand for vaccination once supply is no longer a constraint?"

Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"

Vaccine passports for higher-risk settings (eg. flights, restaurants, major events);National advertising campaigns;Mandatory vaccination for higher risk occupations

Anything is better than nothing. A critical challenge is lack of consistent information and positive messaging. But also -- there is much information of what works and what does not work from other countries. This is a not a unique issue to Australia.

Poll 48

Our panellists were asked

"Higher wages growth is now a top priority of the RBA in its efforts to sustain stronger economic growth. Please identify the three of these government policies you think would best help deliver higher wages growth".  

Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"

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Measures to boost productivity growth;Measures to boost business investment

From the list provided I could not identify three options. The challenge is that you provided one side of the response but not the other side of the response. E.g. constrain immigration v. enhance immigration; e.g. boost bargaining power of trade unions v. enable greater/increased negotiation rights/deviations from union or EBA, etc.

Poll 47

This month, our panellists were asked whether Australia should take action to speed the transition to electric cars.

"As part of efforts to reduce carbon emissions, Australian governments should take action to accelerate the take up, or take no action to accelerate the take up of electric cars"

Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"

Remove the luxury car tax from all-electric cars, Subsidise public charging points for electric cars

8

What I have not seen/read is a benefit-cost analysis of the use of electricity versus gas/diesel. We should also take into consideration the externalities associated with moving fumes from gas/diesel from major cities to the locations where electricity is generated. From a quick search, there is a belief that over 40% of energy-related carbon emissions are due to the burning of fossil fuels for electricity generation.

Poll 46

"On May 11, the government delivered a budget designed, in the Treasurer's words, to 'secure Australia's economic recovery and build for the future'.  What grade would you give the budget given that objective, A, B, C, D, E, F?"

Photo credit Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND

.

B

Very safe and pragmatic. Was it ambitious enough? Given we are experiencing an event none of us have ever experienced, there are no lessons to learn from the past. Moreover, the pandemic is a worldwide issue - much of it is out of our control. Likely the budget represents the best that can be done for now.

Poll 44

"Ahead of a decision about any permanent increase expected early next year, The Conversation and the Economic Society of Australia asked 45 of Australia’s leading economists where they thought JobSeeker should settle."

Be indexed in line with wages

Poll 42 

"The October budget will see the government announce additional policies to support recovery.  Please nominate the four programs you think would be the most effective (for an intervention of a given size) over the next two years"

Photo Credit: Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND 

Expanded investment allowance, Social housing, Incentives for renewable energy, More funding for education and training

What has 2020 revealed to us? In January we were reminded of the serious complications to life with increasing temperatures and the importance of addressing climate change. The pandemic and resulting recession has reminded us of the fragility of the economy and the importance of caring for our neighbours that may live in disadvantage. The changing of the economy stresses the importance of being nimble and ambitious in education and training beyond high school.

Poll 41

"The legislated increases in compulsory super contributions, which are set to climb from 9.5% of wages to 12% over the next five years should...."

Photo Credit: Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND 

Proceed as planned

7

While many of us are facing severe financial constraints with COVID-19, I have to be optimistic that these constraints will end in the short-medium term. Saving for retirement and having a strong financial base is a long term plan. We should not give up on goals of ensuring stronger financial stability in our post-retirement years.

Poll 40

"Governments should provide ongoing fiscal support to boost aggregate demand during the economic crisis and recovery, even if it means a substantial increase in public debt"

Photo Credit: Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND 

Strongly agree

10

Poll 26

"The wages and conditions of Australian workers providing services in sectors affected by the rapid growth of digital on-demand subcontracting platforms will, on average, be expected to fall without further government intervention."

Uncertain (neither agree nor disagree)

5

Poll 24

"Assuming that the law will be changed to allow same-sex couples to marry in Australia, this will generate net economic benefits for the nation as a whole over the next 10 years."

Disagree

9

Poll 23

Question A: "Holding labor market institutions and job training fixed, rising use of robots and artificial intelligence is likely to increase substantially the number of workers in Australia who are unemployed for long periods."

Question B: "Rising use of robots and artificial intelligence in Australia is likely to create benefits large enough that they could be used to compensate those workers who are substantially negatively affected for their lost wages."

A - Uncertain

B - Disagree

Poll 19

"The recent Parliamentary Inquiry into "Gender segregation in the workplace and its impact on women's economic equality" was asked to examine measures to encourage women?s participation in male-dominated occupations and industries. Although there is growing awareness of the productivity gains of gender diversity, the private market alone is unlikely to steer the Australian labour market toward gender equality in male-dominated industries. Breaking down gender segregation in the labour market can only be achieved with some degree of government intervention."

Agree

4

My challenge with this question pertains to what is meant by "government intervention" ... we know this could range from nudges to mandated quotas ... Do I think there is subtle or inadvertent discrimination? Yes. Do I think more could be done by individuals to promote gender, racial, religious equality? Yes. Do I think the government can play a role? Yes. Do I think the government should play a heavy hand in promoting job opportunity and equality? Probably not.

Poll 18

"Given the Commonwealth Treasury?s ongoing difficulty in making accurate forecasts of some of the key economic variables underpinning the Budget ? in particular nominal GDP growth ? the Government should ?outsource? the economic forecasts used in framing the Budget to an independent agency (such as the Parliamentary Budget Office), as now happens in the United Kingdom."

Disagree

7

I think the issue is the notion of outsourcing implies that one group would still be responsible for the forecasts. We know there will be measurement error and/or judgment calls (assumptions) to make when constructing a forecast. We also know that politics can interfere the the judgment calls and/or assumptions made. To me the question is whether more than one group/organization should be used to develop a forecast -- expecting that in some periods all groups will reach consensus and in other periods groups may differ. Critical for giving credibility to any forecast is some "objective" measure that best practices are used to develop the forecast.

Poll 17

"In response to energy shortages around Australia, government policies requiring gas producers to reserve some production for domestic consumption are a good way to ensure that Australian consumers have access to sufficient gas supplies while still allowing for gas exports."

Agree

7