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Author's Name: Guay Lim
Date: Thu 07 May 2020

Guay Lim

Professor Guay Lim

Guay Lim is a Professorial Research Fellow at the Melbourne Institute: Applied Economics and Social Research and an Adjunct Professor at the Department of Economics, University of Melbourne. Her research interest is in the application of macroeconomic forecasting and policy models to obtain insights about macroeconomic issues particularly around inclusive growth and business cycle stabilisation. Her papers have been published in major international journals like the Journal of International Economics, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Journal of Banking and Finance, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Journal of Applied Econometrics. She is a member of the CAMA Shadow Board and the Advisory Board of the Australasian Macroeconomics Society. She has been a Visiting Research Fellow at the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank. Guay is the head of the Macroeconomics Program at the Melbourne Institute responsible for the production of various indicators of activity about the Australian economy.

Subject Area Expertise

Macroeconomics,  Small Open Economies, Macro-econometrics.

Website

Company website: https://www.melbourneeconomicforum.com.au/panelists/guay-lim


Responses (11)


Promoting vaccination uptake in Australia

Poll 49

"What measures should Australian governments adopt to promote demand for vaccination once supply is no longer a constraint?"

Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"

 

Vaccine passports for higher-risk settings (eg. flights, restaurants, major events);National advertising campaigns;Mandatory vaccination for higher risk occupations


Policies to deliver higher wage growth

Poll 48

Our panellists were asked

"Higher wages growth is now a top priority of the RBA in its efforts to sustain stronger economic growth. Please identify the three of these government policies you think would best help deliver higher wages growth".  

Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"

 

.

Measures to boost productivity growth;Measures to boost business investment;Maintaining high governm

Policies directed at increasing output per unit of labour are likely to sustain long-term growth in wages. Measures to boost productivity growth, measures to boost business investment, and measures to increase government spending to support physical and human capital accumulation are labour augmenting changes and likely to yield stronger economic growth. What exactly these measures should be, though, remains to be discussed.


October Budget 2020 - preferred four programs

Poll 42 

"The October budget will see the government announce additional policies to support recovery.  Please nominate the four programs you think would be the most effective (for an intervention of a given size) over the next two years"

Photo Credit: Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND 

 

Bring forward legislated personal income tax cuts, Corporate tax cuts, Permanently boosting JobSeeker (Newstart) beyond December 31, 2020, Infrastructure projects


The legislated increases in compulsory super contributions should...

Poll 41

"The legislated increases in compulsory super contributions, which are set to climb from 9.5% of wages to 12% over the next five years should...."

Photo Credit: Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND 

 

Be deferred

7


Government Debt during the COVID19 Crisis

Poll 40

"Governments should provide ongoing fiscal support to boost aggregate demand during the economic crisis and recovery, even if it means a substantial increase in public debt"

Photo Credit: Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND 

 

Agree

8

The public debt will be sustainable if the fiscal support yields a growth in income which exceeds the cost of funds. Since interest rates are currently very low, the burden of the debt is unlikely to be high.


Transition to electric cars

Poll 47

This month, our panellists were asked whether Australia should take action to speed the transition to electric cars.

"As part of efforts to reduce carbon emissions, Australian governments should take action to accelerate the take up, or take no action to accelerate the take up of electric cars"

Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"

 

Remove the luxury car tax from all-electric cars, Subsidise public charging points for electric cars

6


Wage freeze for economic recovery

Poll 39

"A freeze in the minimum wage will support Australia's economic recovery"

Photo credit: Wes Mountain/The ConversationCC BY-ND 

 

Agree

8

A wages' pause (especially in an environment of low price inflation) would contain labour costs, allow businesses to save/create jobs, encourage employment and support the process of economic recovery. While a freeze in the minimum wage will likely disadvantage low income earners, it can be mitigated by other direct fiscal supports.


The Federal Budget May 2021

Poll 46

"On May 11, the government delivered a budget designed, in the Treasurer's words, to 'secure Australia's economic recovery and build for the future'.  What grade would you give the budget given that objective, A, B, C, D, E, F?"

Photo credit Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND

 

.

B

The Budget contains spending initiatives to consolidate the economic recovery underway, but it is unclear what strategies are in place to sustain inclusive economic growth.


Social Distancing Measures, May 2020

Poll 38

"The benefits to Australian society of maintaining social distancing measures sufficient to keep R<1 for COVID-19 are likely to exceed the costs"

 

Uncertain

8

Whether the benefits are likely to exceed the costs is uncertain as we are talking about concepts that are hard to measure/quantify. Are direct fiscal payments costs and/or benefits? The evaluation will also depend on how long social distancing measures will be in place, the severity/strictness of the measures as well as the nature of financial and non-financial supports. The prevalence of testing and contact tracing will also be important to the analysis.


Top economists want JobSeeker boosted by $100+ per week and tied to wages

Poll 44

"Ahead of a decision about any permanent increase expected early next year, The Conversation and the Economic Society of Australia asked 45 of Australia’s leading economists where they thought JobSeeker should settle."

Photo credit : Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND

 

Be indexed in line with wages


Does the budget rebuild our economy and create jobs?

Poll 43

"On 6 October, the Government delivered a budget designed, in the Treasurer's words, to 'rebuild our economy and create jobs'.  What grade would you give the budget given the objective?  A, B, C, D, E, F"

Photo Credit: Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND 

 

A

Fiscal policy has to be more active in stimulating the economic recovery in an environment where monetary policy is operating at close to the zero-lower bound. This budget did that by including a range of fiscal stimulus measures to support jobs and to promote economic growth.