Polls
We can and should keep unemployment below 4%, says our survey of top economists
Poll 60
Australia’s leading economists believe Australia can sustain an unemployment rate as low as 3.75% – much lower than the latest Reserve Bank estimate of 4.25% and the Treasury’s latest estimate of 4.5%.
Budget 2023
Poll 59
Our panellists were asked the following 2023 budget question: "On May 9, the government delivered a budget designed, in the Treasurer's words, to strike a balance between relief, repair and restraint'. What grade would you give the budget, given that objective: A, B, C, D, E or F?"
Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND - https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/
How economists would raise $20 billion per year
Poll 58
When panellests were asked to find an extra A$20 billion per year to fund government priorities like building nuclear submarines and responding to climate change, Australia’s top economists overwhelmingly back land tax, increased resource taxes, an attack on negative gearing and extending the scope of the goods and services tax.
Photo credit by Joshua Hoehne on Unsplash
Responses (59)
Leading economists back Federal Government action to curb rising gas and electricity prices
Poll 57
Australia’s top economists have overwhelmingly endorsed intervention to restrain gas and electricity prices, with only three of the 47 leading economists surveyed believing the best thing the government can do is to leave things to the market.
Photo credit: Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND
Responses (47)
Top Economists see no prolonged high inflation, no rate hike next year (Q4)
Poll 51
Our panellists were asked whether rate hikes would be necessitated in the United States, Britain and Australia.
Despite appearances – especially in the United States – the era of high inflation isn’t set for a comeback in the view of Australia’s leading economists, and most see no need for the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates next year.
Question 4
"Following the next Federal election, the incoming Federal Government should commission an independent Review of the Reserve Bank of Australia."
Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"
Responses (55)
Top Economists see no prolonged high inflation, no rate hike next year (Q3)
Poll 51
Our panellists were asked whether rate hikes would be necessitated in the United States, Britain and Australia.
Despite appearances – especially in the United States – the era of high inflation isn’t set for a comeback in the view of Australia’s leading economists, and most see no need for the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates next year.
Question 3
"The Reserve Bank has, over the past 5 years, effectively used the tools available to it to achieve its goals of "maintaining the stability of the currency, ensuring full employment and furthering the 'economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia'."
Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"
Responses (55)
Top Economists see no prolonged high inflation, no rate hike next year (Q2)
Poll 51
Our panellists were asked whether rate hikes would be necessitated in the United States, Britain and Australia.
Despite appearances – especially in the United States – the era of high inflation isn’t set for a comeback in the view of Australia’s leading economists, and most see no need for the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates next year.
Question 2
"When do you expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to next lift its cash rate?"
Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"
Responses (55)
Transition to electric cars
Poll 47
This month, our panellists were asked whether Australia should take action to speed the transition to electric cars.
"As part of efforts to reduce carbon emissions, Australian governments should take action to accelerate the take up, or take no action to accelerate the take up of electric cars"
Photo credit "Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND"
Responses (62)
The Federal Budget May 2021
Poll 46
"On May 11, the government delivered a budget designed, in the Treasurer's words, to 'secure Australia's economic recovery and build for the future'. What grade would you give the budget given that objective, A, B, C, D, E, F?"
Photo credit Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND
Responses (55)
Top economists want JobSeeker boosted by $100+ per week and tied to wages
Poll 44
"Ahead of a decision about any permanent increase expected early next year, The Conversation and the Economic Society of Australia asked 45 of Australia’s leading economists where they thought JobSeeker should settle."
Does the budget rebuild our economy and create jobs?
Poll 43
"On 6 October, the Government delivered a budget designed, in the Treasurer's words, to 'rebuild our economy and create jobs'. What grade would you give the budget given the objective? A, B, C, D, E, F"
Photo Credit: Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND
Responses (43)
October Budget 2020 - preferred four programs
Poll 42
"The October budget will see the government announce additional policies to support recovery. Please nominate the four programs you think would be the most effective (for an intervention of a given size) over the next two years"
Photo Credit: Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND
Responses (49)
The legislated increases in compulsory super contributions should...
Poll 41
"The legislated increases in compulsory super contributions, which are set to climb from 9.5% of wages to 12% over the next five years should...."
Photo Credit: Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND
Responses (44)
Government Debt during the COVID19 Crisis
Poll 40
"Governments should provide ongoing fiscal support to boost aggregate demand during the economic crisis and recovery, even if it means a substantial increase in public debt"
Photo Credit: Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND
Responses (50)
Social Distancing Measures, May 2020
Poll 38
"The benefits to Australian society of maintaining social distancing measures sufficient to keep R<1 for COVID-19 are likely to exceed the costs"
Responses (47)
Wage freeze for economic recovery
Poll 39
"A freeze in the minimum wage will support Australia's economic recovery"
Photo credit: Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND
Responses (41)
Motherhood, caring and the careers of Australian women - April 2019
Poll 37
Proposition 1: "Without changes to existing public policy or private sector practice in Australia, motherhood will always negatively affect a woman's career."
Proposition 2: "In Australia, fathers are more restricted than mothers in fulfilling a caring role while in employment."
Responses (34)
Sugar sweetened beverage tax for Australia - July 2018
Poll 31
Proposition 1: "The best economic policy instrument available to policy makers seeking to address obesity and related health issues in Australia is the introduction of a tax on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs)."
Proposition 2: "The health and non-health benefits from a tax on SSBs are likely to outweigh the possible costs felt elsewhere in the economy."
Responses (21)
Professional Accreditation of Economists - March 2019
Poll 36
Proposition 1: "Professional accreditation for the economics profession would attract more people to economics as a career."
Proposition 2: "The benefits of professional accreditation for current and prospective economists would exceed any possible costs"
Responses (38)
Congestion pricing - November 2018
Poll 34
"In general, using more congestion charges in crowded transportation networks — such as higher tolls during peak travel times in cities, and peak fees for airplane takeoff and landing slots — and using the proceeds to lower other taxes would make citizens on average better off."
Responses (27)
US corporate tax cuts - March 2018
Poll 27
"The recent US corporate tax cuts will have no impact on investments in and capital flows into Australia."
Responses (30)
Australian Federal Budget 2018 - Reduce government debt or provide tax cuts? - April 2018
Poll 28
Proposition 1: "Slowing the growth in the debt to GDP ratio should be a priority for Australian governments."
Proposition 2: "Slowing the growth in the debt to GDP ratio is a higher priority than income or corporate tax cuts."
Responses (29)
Will building more homes make housing cheaper? - May 2018
Poll 29
"A sustained increase in the number of new homes constructed each year, all else equal, will make housing cheaper than otherwise."
Responses (25)
Electric vehicles and road-use pricing - June 2018
Poll 30
"Pricing of road-use for electric vehicles should be the same as fossil fuel-powered vehicles."
Responses (25)
Royal Banking Commission (II) - February 2019
Poll 35
"There is no way to significantly increase the degree to which Australian retail banks act in the interests of consumers."
Responses (20)
Waste Policy - August 2018
Poll 32
"There are clear net benefits for Australians from (further) increasing the diversion of waste from Australian landfills."
Responses (16)
Banking Royal Commission and the Credit Crunch - October 2018
Poll 33
Proposition 1: "There is a significant risk that, either as a result of the findings and recommendations of the Royal Commission into Misconduct in the Banking, Superannuation and Financial Services Industry or as a result of the financial institutions' response to those findings, credit will become less readily available to Australian households or businesses."
Proposition 2: "Assuming credit becomes less readily available to Australian households or businesses, this will in turn have adverse consequences for the performance of the Australian economy."
Responses (24)
Gig economy and worker welfare - February 2018
Poll 26
"The wages and conditions of Australian workers providing services in sectors affected by the rapid growth of digital on-demand subcontracting platforms will, on average, be expected to fall without further government intervention."
Responses (31)
Journalism as a public good - January 2018
Poll 25
Proposition 1: "The modern phenomena of information overload and social-media-fuelled 'fake news' bring into focus the value of quality journalism. Quality journalism has a public-good dimension that warrants public support."
Proposition 2: "The Australian government presently provides funding for the ABC and SBS, Australia's independent public broadcasters. The Australian government should increase its financial support of quality journalism."
Responses (36)
Same sex marriage - November 2017
Poll 24
"Assuming that the law will be changed to allow same-sex couples to marry in Australia, this will generate net economic benefits for the nation as a whole over the next 10 years."
Responses (30)
Robots, artificial intelligence and the 'future of work' - October 2017
Poll 23
Question A: "Holding labor market institutions and job training fixed, rising use of robots and artificial intelligence is likely to increase substantially the number of workers in Australia who are unemployed for long periods."
Question B: "Rising use of robots and artificial intelligence in Australia is likely to create benefits large enough that they could be used to compensate those workers who are substantially negatively affected for their lost wages."
Responses (33)
Public borrowing for infrastructure investment - September 2017
Poll 22
"As interest rates are at low levels by historical standards, federal and state governments, despite their public debt levels, should be borrowing more than they currently are to invest in infrastructure"
Responses (32)
The Finkel Review - August 2017
Poll 21
"The Finkel Review has recommended a mandatory certificate scheme that obliges electricity retailers to purchase a certain proportion of the electricity they sell from sources of electricity whose emission intensity is below a defined level. This is preferable to conventional approaches to the pricing of externalities, such as an emission tax or cap and trade scheme."
Responses (26)
Does privatisation of human services hurt outcomes? - July 2017
Poll 20
"For-profit provision of human services like health and education leads to poor client outcomes and high costs to government."
Responses (30)
Gender diversity in the workplace - role of government? - June 2017
Poll 19
"The recent Parliamentary Inquiry into "Gender segregation in the workplace and its impact on women's economic equality" was asked to examine measures to encourage women?s participation in male-dominated occupations and industries. Although there is growing awareness of the productivity gains of gender diversity, the private market alone is unlikely to steer the Australian labour market toward gender equality in male-dominated industries. Breaking down gender segregation in the labour market can only be achieved with some degree of government intervention."
Responses (28)
Australian Federal Budget 2017 - Outsourcing Economic Forecasting - May 2017
Poll 18
"Given the Commonwealth Treasury?s ongoing difficulty in making accurate forecasts of some of the key economic variables underpinning the Budget ? in particular nominal GDP growth ? the Government should ?outsource? the economic forecasts used in framing the Budget to an independent agency (such as the Parliamentary Budget Office), as now happens in the United Kingdom."
Responses (34)
Energy shortages - reserving Australian gas - April 2017
Poll 17
"In response to energy shortages around Australia, government policies requiring gas producers to reserve some production for domestic consumption are a good way to ensure that Australian consumers have access to sufficient gas supplies while still allowing for gas exports."
Responses (31)
CGT deductions - March 2017
Poll 16
"Capital gains tax deductions for housing investment should be removed because they overstimulate the housing market, contributing to rising house prices."
Responses (27)
Economics teaching - micro before macro - February 2017
Poll 15
"It is more effective to teach an introductory course in micro-economics first before an introductory course in macro-economics."
Responses (30)
Social costs of gambling - December 2016
Poll 14
"The social costs of gambling exceed the benefits (including consumer surplus from recreational gambling and tax revenue for governments)."
Responses (27)
2016 US Election - November 2016
Poll 13
"Hillary Clinton is likely to be the superior US presidential candidate for the Australian economy and for Australia."
Responses (35)
Immigration - November 2016
Poll 12
'The total benefit of current levels* of migration to Australia will outweigh the total costs to Australia's economy'.
Responses (30)
Behavioural economics - September 2016
Poll 11
Part 1: 'Behavioural economics provides new and useful insights into individual behaviour.'
Part 2: 'It is unethical for governments to use behavioural economics to "nudge" citizens.'
Responses (66)
RBA economic growth targets - August 2016
Poll 10
"The Reserve Bank of Australia should be tasked with targeting nominal economic growth rather than inflation."
Responses (29)
The Brexit - impact on UK citizens - July 2016
Poll 9
"Assuming it is implemented, Brexit will deliver net economic benefits, on average, to UK citizens within its first 5 years."
Responses (34)
Spend on education or business tax cut - June 2016
Poll 8
"Australia will receive a bigger economic growth dividend in the long-run by spending on education than offering an equivalent amount of money on a tax cut to business."
Responses (30)
Budget 2016-17 - Returning to surplus - May 2016
Poll 7
"The recently released 2016-17 Commonwealth Budget projects that the Australian Government's underlying cash balance will return to surplus by 2020?21*. Australian politicians should rebalance the budget with greater urgency."
Responses (22)
China services boom for Australia? - April 2016
Poll 6
"As the Chinese economy makes its transition from investment-led to consumption led growth, the Australian service sector which currently accounts for around 20% of total exports, will produce a second 'Chinese economic windfall' for Australians."
Responses (33)
Efficiency of tax Government investments in major sporting events - February/March 2016
Poll 5
"Government investments in major sporting events usually generate net benefits for the city or region where the investment is made."
Responses (25)
Efficiency of tax incentives - February 2016
Poll 4
"New tax incentives for investments in technology and innovation businesses and start-ups are likely to be inefficient."
Responses (29)
Bah Humbug Australia - December 2015
Poll 3
"Giving specific presents as holiday gifts is inefficient, because recipients could satisfy their preferences much better with cash."
Responses (30)
Penalty Rates Reform - November 2015
Poll 2
"Aligning Sunday penalty rates for hospitality, entertainment and retailing industries with the current levels for Saturday, as proposed in the Productivity Commission's draft report, will lead to more employment and greater availability of services in these industries on Sundays."
Responses (40)
GST Reform - October 2015
Poll 1
“Increasing government revenue collected through the Goods and Services Tax (GST) by removing exemptions (such as food, health and education) is better than achieving the same extra revenue by increasing the GST rate while retaining the existing exemptions.”